6.6b-Biological Forecast Model
Our goal is to predict biological dynamics in Lunenburg Bay - that is, the distributions and growth of phytoplankton - using mathematical models guided directly by measurements from our coastal observatory. The models describing ecological dynamics are embedded within the coastal circulation model of the Bay. Oceanographic and optical measurements from the observing system are used to keep the models close to reality while constantly assessing their accuracy.
The objective of this element is to provide real-time measurement and improved understanding of the influence of the Scotian Shelf on processes in Lunenburg Bay. This involves in-situ oceanographic measurements from moorings approximately 25 km south of Halifax which telemeter data back to shore via a satellite communications network.
6.6c Simulations of plankton dynamics on the Scotian shelf
We are developing models of shelf plankton dynamics towards their eventual use to prescribe the boundary conditions for environmental models of Lunenburg Bay.
We are currently evaluating the model for inner shelf areas more representative of the boundary with Lunenburg Bay.
6.6c Box Model Simulations of plankton dynamics on the Scotian shelf
We have implemented a coarse resolution box model of Lunenburg Bay to test ecosystem models of varying complexity for simulation and prediction. The goal is to use these models to investigate potential determinants of spatial patterns in ecological characteristics by comparing simulated patterns (Figure 1) with those revealed by data from the observing system.